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What is an Earnings Beat?

What is an earnings beat?

The term ‘earnings beat’ is a buzzword that resonates through the corridors of Wall Street and reverberates in the stock market. It signifies a company’s quarterly earnings report that surpasses the analysts’ expectations, reflecting a financial performance that outshines forecasts. This phenomenon can trigger a myriad of reactions in the financial markets, often leading to a positive rally in the company’s stock price.

The Anatomy of an Earnings Beat

An earnings beat occurs when a company’s reported earnings per share (EPS) exceed the consensus estimates projected by financial analysts. These analysts conduct extensive research and use various models to predict a company’s performance for the upcoming quarter. When the actual earnings surpass these predictions, it’s an indication that the company is performing better than what the market anticipated.

The Significance of Earnings Reports

Earnings reports are pivotal for investors as they provide a snapshot of a company’s financial health. They include key metrics such as revenue, net income, and EPS. These reports are released on a quarterly basis and are followed by earnings calls, where company executives discuss the results and provide insights into the company’s operations, market conditions, and future outlook.

The Impact of an Earnings Beat on the Market

An earnings beat can lead to an uptick in a company’s stock price. Investors perceive an earnings beat as a sign of a company’s robust financial health and growth potential. It can also enhance investor confidence and lead to increased investment in the company. Conversely, an earnings miss, where a company’s reported earnings fall below analysts’ expectations, can result in a decline in the stock price.

The Role of Guidance and Future Earnings Estimates

Companies often provide their own earnings guidance for the upcoming quarters. This guidance is an estimate of future earnings and is based on the company’s assessment of its business prospects. When analysts set their estimates, they consider this guidance along with other factors such as industry trends, economic conditions, and historical performance.

The Strategy Behind Earnings Estimates

Analysts’ earnings estimates are not just random guesses; they are based on a thorough analysis of various factors. These include past earnings trends, industry performance, economic indicators, and company-specific news. Analysts also revise their estimates as new information becomes available, leading up to the earnings report release.

The Psychology Behind Earnings Beats

An earnings beat can also have psychological effects on the market. It can create a sense of optimism and momentum among investors, leading to a herd mentality where the positive sentiment spreads, and more investors jump on the bandwagon to buy shares.

The Controversy Surrounding Earnings Manipulation

There is a debate on whether some companies manage their earnings to beat the estimates. This practice, known as ‘earnings management’, involves legally using accounting techniques to influence the reported earnings. Critics argue that this can mislead investors and distort the true financial performance of a company.

The Long-Term View of Earnings Performance

While an earnings beat can provide a short-term boost to a company’s stock price, it is the long-term earnings performance that truly matters. Investors should look beyond one-time beats or misses and assess a company’s sustained ability to grow and generate profits.

Conclusion

An earnings beat is a strong indicator of a company’s financial performance, but it should not be the sole factor in investment decisions. Investors should conduct comprehensive research and consider a company’s long-term potential before making investment choices. In the dynamic world of finance, an earnings beat is just one piece of the puzzle in understanding the complex picture of a company’s true value. 

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Financial Ratios for Beginners

Introduction 

  • What are Financial Ratios? 
  • What are they used for? 

Examples of Financial Ratios 

  • P/E Ratio 
  • EPS 
  • ROE 
  • PEG Ratio 
  • Dividend Yield 

Experienced investors and bankers talk about Financial Ratios all of the time. You may be familiar with a couple of them like P/E Ratio and EPS, but have no idea what picture they paint. Financial ratios are values derived from financial statements to come up with useful information about a company.

The numbers from the financial statements are used to conduct quantitative analysis and assess a variety of things such as growth, profitability, rates of return etc. The information derived from these ratios would help you create decisions and more accurately predict the performance of a stock. 

There are a lot of financial ratios out there, financial analysts and accountants may use every single one of them everyday, but to help you ease into the concept of Financial Ratios it would be best to focus on these five financial ratios: 

P/E Ratio 

This is perhaps one of the best and most used financial ratios. If P/E Ratio seems familiar to you, maybe it’s because it’s commonly shown in the stock’s summary along with other useful information such as the Open, Close, Market Cap, and Volume. The Price/Earnings ratio is used to value a company by comparing its current share price to its per-share earnings or EPS which we would discuss later.

This can be used to compare a company to its historical record. A high P/E ratio signifies a company’s stock is overvalued, meaning investors are expecting high growth rates. Companies that have a net loss do not have a P/E ratio since nothing would be put in the denominator. 

EPS 

EPS is another common financial ratio because it tells us about the company’s profitability. Earnings Per Share is derived by dividing the company’s profit by the outstanding shares of its common stock. A company with higher EPS means that it is considered profitable. Investors consider stocks with higher EPS as stocks of greater value since the company has shown to have higher profits relative to its share price. EPS can be in different forms such as excluding extraordinary items or discontinued operations, or on a diluted basis. 

ROE 

Return on Equity calculates a company’s financial performance by dividing net income by the shareholders’ equity. ROE is a measure of profitability in relation to the stockholders’ equity. An ROE value of a particular stock is good or bad depending on the ROE of similar stocks. The rule of thumb is to

target the ROE that is just above or equal to the average. Growth rates and dividend growth rates can also be estimated ung ROE. 

PEG Ratio 

The price/earnings to growth ratio is one of the more unheard of financial ratios as compared to the ones that I have talked about. The PEG ratio is derived by dividing the P/E ratio by the growth rate of its earnings for a specific period. The PEG is useful in determining a stock’s value while also considering the company’s expected earnings growth. It is considered to give a better picture than just the P/E ratio. The difference between the two is that the PEG ratio adds in expected earnings growth into the formula. It is usually used as an indicator of a stock’s true value. 

Dividend Yield 

This financial ratio shows the amount a company pays out in dividends per year relative to its stock price. This is a very good indicator for investors who are looking to position themselves for the long term. Compared to the other financial ratios, this financial ratio is more straightforward in what the result of the ratio tells us. It is worth mentioning that higher dividend yield doesn’t automatically equate to a good investment opportunity as high dividend yield can be attained by declining stock prices. 

In sum, just like indicators and many investing strategies, different financial ratios are more useful to specific types of investors. These are very useful when making decisions and add an extra layer of thought before going into a position. These tools provide an inside glance at the position of the company you are going to invest on. What technical analysis and fundamental analysis cannot predict may be seen when comparing these financial ratios.

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Winning With Nothing But The Basics

Before entering the level 10 in a game, the player needs to start at level 1. Before even the famous Shakey’s or Mang Inasal have started, they have started small too! And just like any other investor or trader, everyone starts with the foundation of the basics in technical and fundamental analysis.

Winning in the stock market is a process. It is never just a one-step win or even a trade with 80,000 pesos gain. Everything starts with a good foundation of financial literacy, and this starts with the basics in technical and fundamental analysis.

Now, what’s in it for you to understand the basics? Understanding each concept of technical and fundamental analysis will help you assess the stock you are about to pick. It helps you gain more wisdom on how you should understand the stock market and the company on various perspective, just like how you would choose between wearing a casual or formal attire. Analysis provides information that will help you interpret the structure of the company or even understanding the figures on the financial statements.

As an investor, you must know the intrinsic and true value of a stock. You must be able to determine if the value reflects on the stock prices. Of course, who would like to buy a 500 pesos worth of ground coffee without knowing its history, background, and components! This is the reason that you should invest in knowledge on analyzing the stock market.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is not just defined to be any fundamental, basic, or elementary education. Understanding the component of fundamental analysis would help you asses the quality, profitability, sustainability, and growth of the company.

Start from a top-down approach, in which you would start analyzing information from general to specific. Now, how are you supposed to win the basics in fundamental analysis? Remember the acronym FLIGHT! And now we are boarding to our destination, the fundamental analysis

F stands for Financial as your Language

English and Tagalog are not enough in understanding the stock market. Make finance as your language.

Why? So that you can understand the financial characteristics and financial statements of the company you are about to invest into. Now, making finance as your language does not solely mean accounting or computing. It also helps you understand underlying factors and signals such the news and press releases of the company. Assess the valuation, earnings, and growth, of the company to know the financial health in terms of assets, obligation, ratios, and cash flows.

L stands for the Law of Demand and Supply

Math? Stock Market? And now Economics? Yes! You see, if there are sellers and buyers, there is a demand and supply in the market, and this makes the stock prices rise and fall. Take note that when the stock goes uptrend, there are many buyers. Otherwise, there are many sellers.

I stands for Intrinsic Value 

Always keep it in mind that you would want to buy a stock which reflects its value on the stock price. To know this, you must check the Price-Earnings ratio of the company and compare it among its peers or company of the same industry.

G stands for Growth and Good Investment

The relationship of the price and value also leads to quality of growth and goodness of the investments. In order to know the quality of the company, you must check on the high-quality rate of the company’s value on the financial statements (balance sheet, income statement, cash flow) and financial ratios (liquidity, operating, valuation, common size, solvency).

Never just check on one part of the structure! You must check the signals and be able to determine if the company is under too much debt or is it well operating on its finances.

H stands for Historical Performance

It is a must to check on the historical performance of the company to check whether or not they are growing. Ask yourself if it is the company you are willing to place your money into for a certain period.

T stands for Think not Trend

Never invest on a stock just because it goes trending or your friends tells you so. Think wisely and analyze the company’s stability and development. Remember being famous or big does not necessarily mean it is good investment.

And now we are unto our next destination, technical analysis. Now, let’s READ!

Technical Analysis

R stands for Reading Charts, Lines, and Patterns: Market Structure

Understanding the different charts, trend lines, and candlestick patterns will help you understand the market structure. With these visual representations, you can slowly begin to determine if the stocks are going uptrend, downtrend, reversal, or sideways.

E stands for Evaluation with Indicators

Now, in technical analysis there are various indicators. However, you must begin with learning the concepts then applying each and checking which one would fit your strategy as a scalper, day trader, position, or swing trader.

You must first understand the concept of floor price and the floor ceiling, also know as the support and resistance. Why? Because this will help you understand the breakouts and breakdown with the candlesticks,

You can also use the RSI, to know if the stocks is overbought or oversold, or the moving average to know the buy signal. There are various purposes of indicators. But most importantly, this will help you enter and exit the market on a great time.

A stands for Assessing yourself 

Assessing chart movements is useless if you do not have risk management and control over your emotions. As Alexander Elder quoted, “the markets are unforgiving, and emotional trading always results in losses”, and I guess you wouldn’t want that either!

D stands for Don’t forget to read and do a strategic application

After all these points to remember, always enjoy learning and re-learning over and over again.

Charlie Munger: The game of life is the game of everlasting learning. At least it is if you want to win.

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Fundamental Analysis vs. Technical Analysis—Two Basic Methods to Conquer the Stock Market

In general, there are two sides when it comes to stock market analysis—fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Today we’ll discuss both methods and explain their advantages and disadvantages.

**Before we begin, you may want to check out these basic terms to help you understand this article better.

What are fundamental analysis and technical analysis?

Fundamental analysis a method of stock market analysis where investors study the intrinsic value of a stock (A.K.A. what it should  cost) based on a variety of factors. Decisions on whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock are based on comparing the intrinsic value to the market price. Fundamental analysis is generally less structured than technical analysis and is used most by long-term investors.

Technical analysis, on the other hand, is easier to apply to short-term stock trading. This method uses historical data on price, volume, and other statistics to predict future price movements. Stock charts are commonly used in technical analysis to track and analyze patterns that can predict price movement.

In reality, most traders will use a combination of these two methods. A general rule of thumb is that fundamental analysis will help you determine which companies to invest in, while technical analysis will help you determine when you should buy and sell shares of these companies.

So how do each of these methods work? Let’s take a deeper look.

How does fundamental analysis work?

In fundamental analysis, our objective is to assess the company’s performance and stability—basically whether it is a good business or not. This includes looking at financial statements, its performance compared to others in the same industry, news that may affect the company’s operations, and more.

When looking at the financial statements, one of the most important indicators is the company’s net income. We’re not talking about NGO’s or charities after all. In the stock market, a company needs to be making money to be valuable. However, you should remember that a company’s income only shows one part of the picture.

Using a combination of financial statements and news, you can answer more complex questions such as: Are the company’s expenses high compared to the industry average? What amount of its earnings are retained and reinvested into the company? Are they constantly improving their product or service? What are their plans for the future and will these plans increase or decrease their value? What risks are they taking are you willing to take on the same risk?

There is no single way to do fundamental analysis, but at the end of the day there is one question every fundamentalist is trying to answer: Is this a business that I want to put my money into?

How does technical analysis work?

In technical analysis, people focus more on identifying trends and chart patterns rather than the company’s intrinsic value. The underlying idea here is that a stock’s market value is not always determined by its intrinsic value. Especially in the short term, a stock’s price is mostly influenced by external factors such as market sentiment. Patterns and trends can be identified based on historical data, and this is what allows us to predict how sellers and buyers (read: supply and demand) will react.

There is a long list of tried and tested techniques for performing technical analysis, but there are far too many for us to cover in one article. Some of the most basic methods include:

  • Identifying chart patterns such as the cup and handles, head and shoulders, ascending triangle, etc.
  • Assessing the market sentiment based on price movement, volume, moving averages, etc.
  • Identifying and riding trends until your preferred indicators signal otherwise

Whatever your preferred methods for technical analysis, the objective remains the same: To capitalize on patterns formed by the unified emotions and reactions of market players.

So which is better, fundamental analysis or technical analysis?

While everyone has their own preferences, neither method is really better than the other. That’s why they both exist! Each method of analysis has strengths and weaknesses. It’s just a matter of finding your own fit.

If you want to invest long-term, then you might want to go for a more fundamental approach. You’ll have to do more work initially, but you won’t be as sensitive to the day-to-day price fluctuations. If you are able to buy an undervalued stock, all those ups and downs will still result in an overall price increase and profit for you.

If you’re going for a short-term investment, then technical analysis might be a better option. Because prices tend to fluctuate, patterns in price movement will more accurately predict the stock price tomorrow or next week. The emotions and reactions of market players have a bigger impact on short-term investments because there isn’t enough time for the ups and downs to average out—unlike in long-term investments.

In reality, most traders use a mix of fundamental and technical analysis to manage their portfolios. This allows them to see the complete picture and make more informed trades. Information, after all, is power. Nowhere is that statement more true than it is in the stock market.

Our advice?

The more knowledge you have, the better. Learning both fundamental and technical analysis will not only help you make better decisions, but also give you more confidence in yourself and your trades. This will prevent you from giving into hyped up stocks or selling your stocks too early because you doubted yourself. It will also allow you to start building your own stock trading system and strategy—the foundation of any trader trying to make money in the stock market.

Even if you eventually become a pure fundamental or technical trader, you won’t know which method works best for you if you don’t try them both first! You may even use one method to validate your analysis using the other. So give both methods a try, and tell us about your experience in the comments below.

Got any questions? Leave a comment below!

 

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