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Should You Become an Independent Operator?

Being an Independent Operator is a skill that seems difficult to do for most aspiring traders. The ability to cancel the noise regarding various opinions from fellow market participants is essential to being profitable in the years to come. Craving for the insights of other traders towards your trade selection is not an ideal way of amassing consistency in the long run.

The late Jesse Livermore, one of the best traders in the world, also succumbed to the opinions of others back in the day. This shortly led him to financial ruin. As he exclaims, the markets are never wrong, only opinions are. Furthermore, the late Nicolas Darvas also experienced something similar.

After developing the Darvas Box system, there was a phase in his life where he moved next to the office of one of his brokers. This led him to jive in with rumors, opinions, and insights with regards to his stock selection. After both critically acclaimed traders experienced turmoil, they started to commit to the golden rule of deciding their stock selections by themselves.

Source: QuotesonFinance.com

Even if these events happened sixty to eighty years ago, it is still relevant up to this day. These events still happen in the trading community today. People pushing their thoughts in social media, people debating about their stock picks, people telling the community to ride in the stock as it reaches the moon. Unfortunately, this is inevitable.

The financial markets will never change so long as human nature never changes. Given that it is predominantly humans who trade the markets, the behavior of which will always be in accordance with human nature.

Source: Steve Burns’ Twitter Post

If you crave and rely on another person’s bias towards a stock or any asset class, how can you become an independent operator? It is a fact that everyone is unique. We have different perceptions regarding a subject matter.

Avoid being succumbed to rumors and opinions about the markets. I am not saying that we should not seek individuals who are better than us to guide us in our journey, what I am trying to say is that you have to learn how to take things with a grain of salt. Seek knowledge and insights on HOW TO DO IT ON YOUR OWN. Just as in life, you cannot long for your parents’ guidance forever.

You still have the chance to be the Champion of the Biggest Trading Competition in the Philippines! Trading Cup 2020’s Registration is open until OCTOBER 4. Join now!

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Finding Your Niche: The Key to Successful Trading

When we start our journey as traders, we are bombarded by the different trading strategies available to us. You might have heard of trend following, momentum trading, bounce trading, and scalping.

But have you ever considered sticking to one strategy and mastering it? This might seem counterintuitive because you limit the number of opportunities that you chase. However, finding your niche and sticking to only a few strategies might be your key to finding success in the stock market. This article provides three important factors that show us the importance of finding your niche and sticking to it.

Level of Dedication

It is without saying that your niche should be inline with the amount of time that you are willing to put into mastering trading strategies. In reality, different trading setups require different levels of dedication. Trend following might be the easiest since you only have to use trendlines and moving averages.

On the other side of the spectrum, we have the Elliott Wave theory which combines multiple price action patterns as well as trend based Fibonacci retracements. There is no shame in using a simple trading system as long as it matches your lifestyle. In line with this, there is also no shame in dedicating hundreds of hours mastering a setup if you have the time to do so. 

Risk appetite

Another thing to take into account when finding your niche is the level of risk that you are willing to take. Are you willing to trade high volatility basura stocks or are you better off catching swing trades with blue chips?

There are many testimonies of students and employees actively day trading in secret or in the restrooms of their workplaces. While this sounds compelling, it is not exactly sustainable. Imagine catching a ceiling play but then the stock goes down 30% while you are in an important meeting. How would you feel? Would you think that this play is the right one for you? Of course not!

Granted there are recent innovations in the world of trading that prevent these scenarios, it is still important to take into account the type of trades you make in relation to your risk appetite. If you have a full time job then you may want to stick to trend following and swing trades instead of breakouts.  If you have a lot of time then you may want to trade high volatility plays in order to maximize the opportunities presented to you. 

Trading Rules

A common mistake that new traders make is mixing different strategies together. An example of this would be buying on breakout of a sideways stock and setting a MA100 as a cut loss. The problem with this is the entry signal and the exit signal don’t match!

Mixing different strategies makes traders susceptible to whipsaws and very deep (in some cases more than 10%) losses. Once you find your niche, you will be able to focus on trading setups that are actually relevant to you. This means that if you are planning on trading a breakout, your entry, TP, and cut loss prices must be in accordance with a breakout trade and not with other trading setups. 

Conclusion

In the end, although it is important to be familiar with the basic trading strategies, we must strive to specialize on the setups that bring us the most success. In this case, success does not only refer to profits, but it also pertains to our well beings as traders.

No matter how much money you get from a trade, if you feel burnt out and unfulfilled, you might get the desire to stop trading which ultimately leads to the closure of a supplementary source of your income. Finding our niche is truly the key to successful trading. Hopefully this article brings you one step closer to financial freedom. 

InvestaCup 2020 Registration is NOW EXTENDED UNTIL OCTOBER 4. You can still have the chance to win BIG PRIZES and be hailed as the Champion of the Biggest Trading Competition in the Philippines!

 

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Featured Trader for the Week: Tardigrade Trader a.k.a. @tardigradetrader

For this week, we would like to congratulate our featured trader: Tardigrade Trader a.k.a. @tardigradetrader!

This trader was able to spot a sleeper. $ALLHC or AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp. was not talked about not until it broke out of its initial base supported with enormous volume. Tardigrade Trader a.k.a. @tardigradetrader is an active member of the Investagrams community who endlessly spreads his knowledge on Technical Analysis along with his complete thought process in each of his stock selection.

Along with his qualitative assessment about the said stock, he also exclaimed about how minimalism can be applied in trading as well. As mentioned in the previous posts regarding the featured traders, whether the strategy of a said market participant is basic or advanced, their performance will always depend on the end-user itself.

Tardigrade Trader highlighted the importance of an initial consolidation phase before a much-awaited breakout. Patience is the key to spot market leaders. There will be countless times that it will take several weeks or months for a trade to blossom. Moreover, he also added the significance of RSI (14) 70 breaches along with massive volume in the breakout of the pivot high, which further solidifies the said trend.

A breakout of the 1.9 to 2-peso area was an ideal buy point as it was the breakout of the initial base or the symmetrical triangle supported with increasing volume on its up move. It is a low-risk, high-reward trade, as the stop loss levels for the said breakout point could be below 1.8 (-4.5%) if you bought it on a symmetrical triangle pattern. On the other hand, the stop-loss levels for the said breakout point could be below 1.9 (-4.5%) if you bought above the 2-peso psychological resistance level. Take profit areas could be the structural resistance at 2.5 (24%-33%).

It is a must for this stock to hover and sustain above the 2.5 psychological levels to further signify its ascendency. If it does, we may see it consolidate from here. The next significant resistance level would be the 3-peso area being the next structural and psychological levels, along with the 3.8-peso levels being the 52wk high of the said name.

It is a non-negotiable for traders to wait for the right setup. A setup where you could spot names to emerge just like $ALLHC. Waiting for the right moment to click the buy or sell button when all your parameters are finally aligned with a particular name is the ultimate embodiment of professional trading.

Congratulations to those who were able to maximize the technical swing of $ALLHC. Lastly, kudos again to Tardigrade Trader a.k.a. @tardigradetrader for sharing his trade analysis. Your FREE 1 Month InvestaPRO access is on its way!

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Mastering The Trendline: A Guide to the Most Basic Charting Tool

If you are a technical trader, chances are, the trendline is one of the first charting tools that you have learned to use. Its elegance comes from its simplicity: just trace the line and either follow the trend or wait for a breakout. However, like supports and resistances, trendlines are prone to both fakeouts and shakeouts. If you find yourself a constant victim to these fakeouts and shakeouts, then maybe your trendline strategy is missing the most important component: confluence.

In the world of trading, confluence refers to the convergence of different trading strategies. An example would be a set of moving averages, structural supports, and fibonacci retracements all indicating the same critical level for a certain stock. This critical level is often referred to as an area of high confluence. The idea behind the importance of an area of high confluence banks on the fact that different traders use different trading strategies.

From time to time, a high number of traders will consider a price level critical in accordance with their strategy. Once the price reaches this level, there will be a surge in the number of buyers/sellers since a lot of traders consider the price as a critical level. In a nutshell, areas of high confluences often equate to higher probabilities.

Incorporating areas of high confluences with your trendline strategy is as easy as making sure that the price touched an area of high confluence before approaching a trendline. This removes the small errors from mistakes in drawing your trendline as well as irregular market behavior.

Essentially, the key takeaway is that trendline breakouts and breakdowns are invalid if the price did not come from an area of high confluence prior to the breakout/breakdown. This strategy goes well with both breakout trading and trend following since a breakdown from the trendline without a bounce from an area of high confluence is probably a shakeout and not a trend reversal.

Fakeout vs Breakout
Shakeout vs Breakdown

Areas of High Confluence can be composed of (but not limited to) any of the following:

  1. Chart patterns
  2. Range support and resistance levels
  3. Moving Averages
  4. Bollinger Bands
  5. Ichimoku Clouds
  6. Fibonacci Retracement Levels

It is important to note that for your trendline strategy to be effective, you should not only consider areas of high confluences but also the plotting of the trendline itself. The price should touch the trendline at least two times, the more touches, the better. Including the wicks depends entirely on your judgement as a trader as well as the “DNA” of the historical behaviour of the stock. With all this said, let’s head on to some examples.

$ALI [DAILY][2016]

In the photo above, there is a defined trendline on the daily chart of $ALI. We can see that the 40 price level is an area of high confluence because of the following factors: (1) it is a psychological resistance, (2) it is the high of the previous uptrend, (3) the price is already at the top of the Bollinger bands, (4) the RSI is near overbought levels.

Because the price bounced from an area of high confluence before breaking the trendline, there is a high probability that the price action is a breakdown and not just a shakeout. As we can see through what happens next, the move is in fact a breakdown of the trendline. 

$SMPH [WEEKLY][2016-2018]
In the case of $SMPH, the 40 price level serves as a psychological resistance which the stock tried to break prior to the breakdown from the trendline. Aside from a trendline break, we can see that the chart actually looks like a normal bearish RSI divergence. This validates our initial hypothesis that the move is a breakdown and not a shakeout. Aside from this we can see that the MACD is showing bearish signs with the histogram expanding below zero. 

This trendline strategy shows us that although we should develop a trading system that is tailored to our specific needs, we should also be familiar with tools and indicators outside of our system. This helps us widen our understanding of where the market might be headed since we are not only tapping into one strategy, but to multiple ones at the same time.

The stock market is basically a psychological battle between traders of different niches after all. Normal trading rules (take profit, position sizing, and stop loss) still apply. All of these strategies will help you trade the confluence and hopefully take you one step closer to financial freedom.

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InvesTHINK! Who are you?

Never just invest, but invest with a clear mind, invesTHINK!

A good and great trader and investor must refrain from having a prejudice or biased preference. Lots of mistakes can also be rooted from a common mistake, which is then again, having a fallacious and biased concept about the stock market. Exhibiting and executing decisions based on emotions, peer influences, or your confidence towards the market, may happen at times. However, it is a sign of poor financial literacy towards the stock market.

What are your signals and indicators when you begin to enter and exit from the stock market? Were you just hyped among your peers? Have you monitored and checked the 20-day moving average and 50-day average? Here are the common biases you might encounter while creating decisions and analyzing your stocks. Who are you among these?

The Hyped: Social proof 

One of the most common biases and errors occur are due to being hyped with the decision of peers and trends in the community. People tend to be under peer pressure and follow the idea of the majority. Which on the latter, we deem it to be true. Now, the wrong thing about this is that we overlook on the importance and essence of doing our own analysis. It’s just like eating the same flavor of ice cream with your barkada, not knowing that it contains peanuts, which you are allergic too! Do you now realize the danger?

The Follower: Confirmation bias and Groupthink

“Ano gagawin mo? Bibilhin mo na ba ngayon?

Down market diba, mag-aaverage down ka na ba ng stock mo?”
This type of thinking shows a flaw, a misconception. Now following and agreeing turns out to be a bias if you try to prove and justify your decision based on the actions of someone else. You try to seek out the support and the same thinking among your peers. 

Now with groupthink, just because everyone else says that “babagsak na yan, benta mo na” does not always mean they are right. Once you set foot in this bias, you lose the discipline and creativity of solving your own problems.

The Madame Auring, Manghuhula: Hindsight bias

Regrets and disappointments run fast, once you begin to suffer. Some investors and traders try to predict the movement, value, and the future of the stock based on their indicators. “All time low siya noong 2020, 10 pesos na lang siya. Ngayon 11 pesos na lang, bilhin ko na ulit!” The misleading factor on this is that, you tend to look for a similar cause that would make you react whenever the market crashes. You try to create your own predictions and make poor decisions whenever a certain event have occurred. To avoid this, always examine, record, and journal your outcomes.

The Blind: Clustering Illusion

In order to analyze charts, we use several indicators such as candlestick patterns, moving averages, RSI, volumes, and support and resistance. It is also necessary to check on the historical performance of the stock, may it be a daily, weekly, monthly, or yearly basis. However, clustering illusion happens when people tend to become oversensitive and seeing patterns where actually none have existed. Is it possible? Yes. If a trader or investor sees that the market structure repetitively illustrates higher highs, higher lows, higher highs, higher lows, the investor or trader may think that the market is going uptrend. It may seem like it, but always be cautious on the movement. Never create assumptions based on seeking certainty on your own perception.

Conclusion

Always be grounded with a strong foundation of principles and rules, in dealing with the stock market. Decision making will always be difficult, and that should be recognized. However, to be able to create a sound decision takes a lot of learning and re-learning. Always have a discipline in your study routines. And one day, you will achieve success too.

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Featured Trader for the Week: Hisuka (@b0yipit)

Even if the local index may look like it is consolidating from here given its current price structure, various names have emerged. Hisuka (@b0yipit) was able to depart the world of HunterxHunter to further solidify the use of his Nen to spot potential market leaders such as $CNPF or Century Pacific Food, Inc. Hisuka a.k.a. @b0yipit is an active member of the Investagrams community who endlessly spreads his knowledge on the local market with the use of Technical Analysis.

Even if this stock is quite illiquid, it still presented opportunities on the daily chart. Moreover, this stock is nearing all-time high levels. During its consolidation phase, the sideways movement was supported with dried-up volume. Upon its breakout of the underlying base, the move was supported with above-average volume. 

A breakout of the 15-peso area was an ideal buy point as it was the breakout of the parallel channel line supported with above-average volume. It is a low-risk, high-reward trade, as the stop loss levels for the said breakout point could be below 14.5 (-4%), and the take profit areas could be the structural resistance at 17.5 (17%). Another tranche opportunity also emerged when the stock formed a small base ranging from 16 to 16.5-peso area. The breakout of the said mini base was also a good opportunity to add to your position as the stop loss levels for the said pivot area could be below 15.8 (-4.5%).

Looking at the bigger picture, the monthly chart of this stock is also pleasing. The previous breakout of the 15-peso area proved to be significant as it broke out of the long-term parallel channel line along with immense volume. 

It is best for $CNPF to consolidate below the All-Time high levels with dried-up volume to form a constructive base. A break above the 19-peso area in confluence with massive volume is superlative for this stock to continue its dominance. 

As Hisuka (@b0yipit) stated in his post, everyone is indeed entitled to their own opinion. Everyone may view a chart differently from that of the latter. If you have formulated and followed your concise trading plan, then there should not be any problem. Take it with a grain of salt, the decision, in the end, must come from your own bias. Relying on the opinions of other individuals will lead you to financial ruin. Great traders such as Jesse Livermore and Nicolas Darvas have experienced this the hard way. 

Congratulations to those who were able to maximize the up move of $CNPF. Lastly, kudos again to Hisuka a.k.a. @b0yipit for sharing his trade analysis. Your FREE 1- Month InvestaPRO access is on its way!

Take your Trading to the Next Level. JOIN THE INVESTA TRADING CUP 2020: BOUNCE BACK CHALLENGE —
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TEST YOUR LIMITS: Discover How Competitions Can Give You an Edge

With the increasing number of competitions available to the public, newbie traders might be wondering whether or not joining a competition may offer significant advantages as opposed to sticking to virtual trade. With Investagrams, the platforms for virtual trade and competitions offer similar features. They both offer a way to trade with virtual cash while using real time data which simulates real time scenarios without the risk of losing capital. Obviously, competitions give you the chance to win prizes. But the advantages of joining competitions extend beyond monetary value. 

Thinking Long Term

The advantages you can get from joining competitions mostly revolve around your discipline as a trader. When joining a competition, you are encouraged to look beyond short term gains and onto sustainable growth. This forces you to protect your capital through proper position sizing and appropriate exits. Although you can do this through virtual trade, it is very easy to just reset your account or to lose interest in your virtual trade portfolio if you get a losing streak. It is important to note that competitions are marathons, not sprints because local competitions usually last for around 4 months. This means that no matter how much gains you get with one trade, if you can’t sustain this growth then you’ll most probably get overtaken by your competitors. 

Beating the Market

Competitions also encourage you to push yourself beyond merely being profitable to actually being more profitable than the rest of the market. Of course, there are ways to do this through virtual trading such as setting a monthly goal or using the index to track your performance. However, these goals are not as dynamic as directly comparing yourself to similar traders at the same level. Having the ability to compare your performance to other traders in real time will have you constantly searching for high probability trades instead of passively riding on trending stocks. 

Being Part of a Community

Aside from prizes and technical benefits, you also get a better sense of community. For example, Investagrams’ group feature offers a way for Trading Cup 2020 participants to share their learnings and insights throughout the whole competition. Because competitions let people have the same initial capital as well as the same restrictions on the number of trades per day and lock in periods, all participants effectively start on the same level which makes it easier for participants to relate to each other. Ideally, this behaviour will spillover to the whole trading community even after the competitions end.   

Overall, joining a competition offers a good benchmark on whether or not your strategy is optimal. If you find yourself underperforming compared to your competitors, then you may want to realign your learnings and backtest your strategies in order to find the optimal system for you. However, if you find yourself performing better than others, then maybe you should think about transitioning to using a real portfolio with real cash or maybe even consider a career in professional fund managing. Joining a competition is truly a great opportunity that newbies and intermediate traders alike should not pass on. 

It’s time to challenge yourself.

JOIN THE BOUNCE BACK CHALLENGE, be hailed as the INVESTACUP 2020 CHAMPION, and get a chance to win awesome prizes — PRIZE POOL NOW PHP 500,000! 

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