For this week, we would like to congratulate our Featured Trader:@bassitalakay!
Recently, our markets have been strong as many issues have started to bottom out and regain footing. Even more, it seems that everyone has become very optimistic that the businesses will bounce back very soon. This begs the question: how are the fundamentals doing?
While many on the Investagrams platform focus on charts and technical analysis, Apo Lakay Cassandra is one of those people that focuses on sharing fundamental insights. Let’s take a look at what he has been sharing.
Diving into @bassitalakay’s trade
In his post about Jollibee Foods Corporation or $JFC, he gives a deeper look at what the numbers could be telling us. Due to the pandemic, it’s easy to blame bad numbers on the hazardous environment. However, this featured trader looked deeper if there are problems in the company and shared his insights with us.
Last year, $JFC made headlines when it further expanded its global portfolio and acquired CBTL. As they have to work towards rebuilding the business in order to turn it around, the endeavor has become harder due to the disruption in businesses globally. Although possible, Apo Lakay Cassandra shares how doubtful he is that this is a problem that will be dealt with quickly due to the bad numbers and continuously harsh global business environment.
Even though community quarantine protocols are being loosened, we are only transitioning to a new normal that will most likely be different from how things used to be prior to the pandemic.
As people’s lifestyles are disrupted, new economic trends are bound to happen. Apo Lakay Cassandra states that his own insights are possibly based from his own experience. Some possible trends are easy to spot, such as the digitization of businesses and the importance of internet services in all households.
Our featured trader has shared four of his own insights, but just as he says, there will surely be more business trends that could present opportunities to both investors and entrepreneurs.
To show our gratitude for Apo Lakay Cassandra’s efforts to add value to our community, we are giving him FREE one month’s access to InvestaPRO! Happy trading to all!
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Be ready to get high-value learning that you can apply to your business and trading. Join Investa Online Summit now!
We would like to congratulate our featured traders of the week: Yu Niq a.k.a. @yuniq and Lone Trader a.k.a. @lonetraderph! Their efforts in helping and uplifting fellow traders are making the Investa trading community a better place for both newbies and experienced traders.
The Technician
When technical analysis comes to mind, many think of Fibonacci levels, divergences, and Elliot waves. These are all powerful tools for TA, but sometimes the simplest tools can be just as effective. Yu Niq is our technician of the week for spotting $MAC (Macroasia Corporation) with her clean style of charting. One of the strongest issues in our market, $MAC is up 72.44% since our technician spotted it.
The most noticeable part of her charting was the usage of a line chart versus a candlestick chart. Although candlesticks provide more information, line charts serve the purpose of providing a cleaner visual towards where price wants to go as only closing prices are used. In Yu Niq’s analysis, the added clarity of using a line chart shows a clearer picture of what the stock was trying to do: a shakeout.
One could say that there was a bullish divergence, but it should also be remembered that just from a simple support and resistance point-of-view, $MAC was exhibiting signs of strength when it quickly re-took its area of support. It struggled a bit, but it eventually showed that it could stay above it.
Selling could also be done just by looking at resistances as supply zones. It is clear that knowing a lot of indicators isn’t necessary, and that just mastering the basics could lead to effective results. As the saying goes, “fear not the man who has practiced ten thousand kicks once, but fear the man who has practiced one kick ten thousand times.”
Team Player
Our team player for this week, Lone Trader, is someone who has shown leadership qualities in our community. From talking about his own trading to making his own InvestaGroup “Taguig Traders”, he has done it all!
Being a part of a close trading community is a growth hack that every trader should be using. Aside from being able to learn from one another, having a proper community can lead to a group effort in making sure that each person is accountable for his or her own mistakes. Our team player for this week took the initiative and made one for fellow traders near his area. So, if you’re from Taguig, you know what to do – join his InvestaGroup here! ?
More than just making groups, Lone Trader also shares his own trading experiences. Not just by sharing executions and analyses, this team player shares his own filters as well as backtest results.
To show our gratitude to these Featured Traders of the week, we will be giving them FREE one-month InvestaPRO access. We hope that this award will encourage every Ka-Investa to be positive in the community. Happy trading!
No matter where you are in the world right now, there is one pressing problem on everyone’s mind — the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. With many countries in the world under lockdown, economic activity has stopped to a near standstill.
In the Philippines, when the lockdown was first announced, the stock market plunged 6.8%, the worst drop since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. In March alone, PSE’s circuit breakers were triggered twice. This pandemic has brought about a “new normal” and with it, many changes in the way we do businesses. With this new normal bound to take root for the upcoming years, what industries are safe to invest in, and what should we steer away from?
With so many changes in the world, should we even be investing? The short answer — yes. However, it is important to know where to invest to reap the most benefits.
Read on to learn more about the emerging industries and those at risk of falling apart below.
Industries Most Impacted
These are the industries that are taking a huge hit from the ongoing pandemic, whether social distancing measures are making them unable to resume operations, or they are just not equipped to transition to the new normal.
Airline and Tourism
Taking the biggest and most obvious hit are airline companies that are tourism-related businesses. With the world in lockdown and everyone wary of travel, this industry is unable to resume operations. Even after the pandemic is over, they will not recuperate as quickly as others. When lockdowns are lifted, many people will have doubts about traveling in the near future, and travel traffic will not reach the heights it was in pre-lockdown for many years. Additionally, social distancing measures put into place during flights will only allow for at most two-thirds of an airplane to be filled, leading to losses on the part of the airline. Even now, airlines have fixed costs to pay for their airplanes being grounded; but with no passengers to manage the costs, it’s only a matter of time before many airlines become strapped for cash.
Entertainment/Leisure
Another industry facing huge risks, the entertainment/leisure industry will take a long time to recover from the effects of this pandemic. Leisure items are considered non-essential, meaning that people will not prioritize buying these right now. Additionally, retailers will face difficulty in their supply chain due to uncertainties in other countries where these are sourced. Malls will need to adopt intensive health measures to ensure the safety of shoppers, but there is no certainty that many individuals will even want to go out during these times. However, one aspect that may see a rise in demand is the home furnishing industry. With many shifting to working from home, there is a need to improve home facilities by buying new items. Despite this, the industry as a whole will still be facing tremendous challenges in the future, and no certainty as to whether it can recover from this.
Automotive
Automobiles are just not going to be individuals’ top priority coming out of the pandemic. With many also losing their jobs due to the recession it caused, cars will not be able to fit in many’s budgets. Additionally, they face challenges by a disrupted supply chain: with many parts coming from various places around the world, there is no guarantee that these factories will resume operations right away. Many factories have also shifted to making medical equipment to cater to the huge demand for it. There is no clear timeframe as to when these factories will shift back to making car parts, or whether they will at all.
Industries Least Impacted
There are some industries that will come out relatively unharmed, with some even growing from this pandemic. This is a good opportunity to invest in these industries and become more knowledgeable on them.
Food Manufacturing
Perhaps the industry that will reap the most benefits, the food manufacturing industry is one that is definitely not suffering from this pandemic. Food is a top priority for many, and food manufacturers are reaping the benefits of increased demand. For many, there has been little to no devaluation of their stock. Food manufacturing is definitely a stable industry, and one to look out for today and in the future.
Health and Fitness
Medical equipment, PPEs, and vitamins are selling out quickly these days, with many rushing to protect themselves as best they can from the virus. This increased demand will not slow down — with no vaccine in sight, individuals will still try to protect themselves through the available means they can. Additionally, the home fitness industry will see a rise as gyms shut down. It has become an opportunity for retailers of fitness equipment to increase their sales and reach more individuals.
Technology
This industry has seen the largest boom due to this pandemic. With social distancing measures in place, almost everyone has had to rely on technology to reach out to others. The use of platforms such as Zoom has been essential in moving forward businesses and education. There is also a shift to online means for banking and shopping, which was once not so common. These changing behaviors are likely to stick even after the pandemic, as many see the convenience of online means. There is a huge opportunity to invest in technology-based companies, and even start one today.
Looking Forward
The post-pandemic world will see permanent changes in consumer behavior and spending. Perhaps most prominently, there will be a shift in online means to conduct business, communicate, and go about our daily lives. Given this, there is a huge opportunity for growth in that field. However, the most important thing to remember is that times are changing — there is a new normal evolving, and it does not look like we will be going back to how business was in the past. It is critical to keep an open mind in order to keep looking forward and achieve success in this new world.
As traders are rejoicing at the sudden influx of foreign buying, it’s also time to celebrate our featured traders of the week! We would like to congratulate Ferdinand Roaquin a.k.a. @bong_r and Poppy a.k.a. @poppykat for doing a job well done adding value to the Investa Community.
The Technician
Ferdinand Roaquin is our technician of the week for spotting $AC (Ayala Corporation). One of the leading names in our market, $AC has been having a nice play in the past couple of weeks. As the market was drying up and uncertainty started to heighten, $AC was among the leaders in last Friday’s strong market run.
First of all, our technician had two theories: a cup and handle formation and a bullish pennant. The latter, used for short-term movement, is a continuation pattern of an existing uptrend. As one of the resilient issues in the market, $AC has had a pretty nice short-term uptrend heading into the bullish pennant.
Targets for continuation patterns are often set by taking the size of the highest and lowest point of the consolidation, then adding it to the high.
Ferdinand Roaquin also points out that price should hold on the following day from the first impulse candle. As a continuation pattern, it is important that momentum is kept healthy. If price were to drop and the broken resistance doesn’t act as support, it should be taken as a signal that the trend is about to reverse.
The second thesis is a cup and handle formation that was used to forecast a longer-term move. A pattern that can signal either the reversal or continuation of a trend, the cup and handle takes the form of a U-like shape with a smaller consolidation towards the end. The pattern target is taken by measuring the height from the lowest point to the resistance of the handle, then adding it on top of the pattern.
Although there are often varying perceptions when it comes to technical analysis, especially in the subsection of patterns, the most important thing to remember is to recognize how these tools fit in the bigger scheme of your system. For our featured technician for the week, he used these patterns to guide his analysis.
Team Player
Whether in a bull or bear market, trading will always be a rigorous endeavor; which is why team players are always welcomed in any trading community. These are invaluable people that spread positive vibes while adding value to his fellow traders.
The team player of the week award goes to Poppy for consistently sharing informative content and putting extra effort in challenging her fellow traders to exert more effort in stock market learning, while also showing that she walks the talk.
We’ve noticed that this team player has a habit of sharing helpful information. It’s this kind of posts that help promote a growth mindset in the community. Novices will surely appreciate the lessons that they can learn, while experts might find it refreshing. No matter what your skill level is, it is always important to hone one’s efficacy in the basics of trading.
More than just sharing information, Poppy shows that she herself is a continuous learner. As a trader, there should never be a moment where you think that you already know it all. Being a successful trader comes with the mindset that there is always something new to learn.
To appreciate our Featured traders of the week, we will be giving them FREE one-month InvestaPRO access. Keep up the good work, and let’s all do our part in growing our community!
Oil is one of the leading drivers of consumption and a leading indicator of economic growth. Historically, when its price reached a peak of USD 147.7 per share in July 2008, it was at the summit of the stock market index. At the height of economic might, it signaled bullish market highs only to be subdued by the US financial market collapse led by the housing bubble and the stock market burst. At that time, greed and demand were at an all-time high because of the spiraling prices caused by the financial meltdown. After more than a decade of economic and stock market cycles later, at the peak of consumption and economic boom, it happened again in the year of the metal rat, 2020.
The Year of The Metal Rat is considered unlucky in Chinese culture, and surprisingly, it all started there. China is a country that has been experiencing continuous and uncomparable economic growth which has never occurred since the industrial age. But this all changed when scientists traced the origin of a new strain of coronavirus, a highly-contagious disease, COVID-19 in Wuhan, one of its major cities. The residents of Wuhan were getting sick at an exponential rate, so the city implemented a total border lockdown. But to spread it to neighboring and even farther countries in this day, and age, where land, sea, and air travel has become very much accessible was already unavoidable. The virus caused borders across the globe to shut down and economies as well. This followed the stock market to crash once again and trigger numerous circuit breakers. Eventually leading the consumption of oil, one of the major commodities, to grind to a halt.
The pandemic caused the price of oil to plunge at an all-time low due to oversupply. And instead of stalling production caused by this unforeseen circumstance, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and their partners in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) came up with other plans in order to have a price and production rift. They decided on who should back down in their quest to trump their rivals, the shale producers, the United States, and Canada. This followed the commodities and equities market to tailspin.
There are benefits in tracking and studying the price movement of certain commodities especially oil. This particular commodity has been the cause of a number of major alliances, economic and political treaties that are used as leverage, and even wars. That’s why besides index and currency, the price of oil is one of the indicators that traders should watch. Its price should be treated as an investment guide and a trading indicator on when to deploy or withdraw extra capital. If the price of oil rallies, the stock market usually follows not too far or just precedes its price. Hence, commodity traders right now should take advantage of both the low price and volatility of oil.
Although unfortunate, the stock market crashing once again is still within the realm of possibility. Therefore traders should be able to capitalize, prepare for unpredictable damages, and become conscientious enough to share on how to deal with black swan events, including this one. If you are already a trader right now, you are already a part of history!
Magnum is a businessman from Manila who has been stock trading since 2013. He is currently an executive in his family’s security and personnel business and at the same time runs his own company in the telecommunications field.
The market has recently seen a decline in opportunities, but the grind still goes on. For this week, we would like to congratulate our two featured traders of the week:Eureka Trader (@dannie_rose) and Jan S (@juanmiglight).
The Technician
This week’s technician who gave a clear and sound analysis that is actionable is Eureka Trader. He wins this award for spotting $MWIDE. Although how the set-up played out was far from optimal, it is this kind of preparation that sets up a trader to be a consistent performer. Let’s take a closer look at his analysis. See his post here: https://www.investagrams.com/Post/dannie_rose/1037196.
He noted how there was an RSI bullish divergence. An RSI bull div happens when price closers lower, yet the RSI indicator forms a higher low. This is often a sign that a counter-trend reaction may occur as the higher low signifies that the downward momentum is not as strong as buyers are showing up. However, it should be noted that a bullish divergence is not the buy signal itself, but rather a warning sign that a move may occur. This is where Eureka Trader identifies that $MWIDE formed a candlestick SOR (Sign of Reversal) accompanied by high volume – a good sign that there is buying interest. The entry, cut point, and targets are all at support and resistance levels based on moving averages and key levels.
Looking into how the trade played out, it can be seen how unfavorable the price action was for traders.
Right from the open, price skipped the entry point and gapped up all the way to PHP5.41. $MWIDE then became volatile as it would swing in a 5% range. Volatility would die down before eventually dropping lower and even forming a lower low on the daily timeframe.
Nevertheless, there is still merit to the analysis and preparation as the bias for an upward surge was correct. There was still an opportunity for around a 10% gain.
Whether or not Eureka Trader made tweaks and profited from this trade, we would like to commend him for his work because as what was previously mentioned, it is this kind of effort that leads to consistently profitable traders. It’s either you win, or you learn.
The Team Player
Trading is tough, which is why it’s always nice to have people to help you. This featured trader has been a positive force for the community. We would like to congratulate Jan S for being the team player of the week!
Despite joining just this April, Jan S has been consistently helping fellow traders. In a short period of time, he has already amassed more than 150 posts sharing helpful insights as an equity research analyst.
It is evident that he is a continuous learner as well as he stays tuned to the Investa Charting Sessions. He even takes note of his insights and shares them with others.
Commended, sir. We hope you continue to share your learnings to the community.
As a sign of our gratitude to these Featured Traders of the week, we will be giving them FREE one-month InvestaPro access. Congratulations, and keep up the good work!
Whether it’s bull market, bear market, or if there are black swan events, the market continues to move forward. The question is, do you have what it takes to thrive in any market environment?
The Investa Pro League is open to ALL. The competition will run for ONE (1) MONTH from June 15, 2020 until July 17, 2020.
Winners and Prizes:
The top three (3) participants with the highest account value at the end of the trading round will be announced as the winners.
Each winner will receive a corresponding cash prize as follows:
A. You must have an Investagrams account. If you don’t have one yet, you can sign-up here for FREE.
B. Anyone can join the competition. Participants may register until June 14 (Sunday), before the competition officially begins on June 15 (Monday).
C. Registration comes along with a subscription of InvestaPro and InvestaPrime to help you have an edge on your trading game.
D. Complete your payment through Credit/Debit Card, Bank Deposit/Transfer, 7–Eleven (Coins.ph), M-Lhuillier, or Cebuana Lhuillier. You will be notified once your payment has been confirmed.
E. Validation of ID. From your Transaction Invoice, or when you click on “Investa Pro League 2020” competition room under the Virtual Trade tab in Investagrams, you will be led to an instructions page in order to validate your identity. If you haven’t uploaded your Proof of Identity yet, please do so, as this is a required step for all participants. Once approved, you will receive a notification and your Proof of Identity under Account Settings will already be marked as Completed. Access to the official competition room will be granted.
F. Important note: Only one (1) entry and account per person is allowed. If you have more than one (1) account to join the competition, you will be disqualified immediately.
2. Investa PRO League will be accessed through the Investagrams Virtual Trading Platform (https://www.investagrams.com/vTrade) and participants will start with Php 100,000.00 virtual money to trade.
3. Participants can only trade liquid and actively trading stocks (we have filtered out which stocks fit this criteria) and have taken out illiquid names that have wide spreads that can be easily abused. The whole stock list can be accessed once you are accepted into the competition. The tradable stock list can be changed.
4. Upon buying a stock, you can only sell it after 20 minutes. This will protect the competition against ‘rinse-and-repeat’ abuses on illiquid stocks that are not realistically in-line with real market mechanics.
5. To promote diversification, maximum exposure in a single stock can only be 1/3 or 33.33% of the portfolio. This requires the participant to buy at least 3 different stocks should they want to fully invest their portfolio. The system won’t allow you to allocate more than 33.33% in a single stock.
6. Buying and Selling Conditions. Participants now have two options when transacting. The first option is to transact using the current price of the stock and use market orders to buy and sell specific stocks at their real-time prices. The second option is to transact using our new LIMIT ORDERS. By using Limit Orders, you won’t need to watch the market the whole day in order to transact in the market.
Buy – You can buy the same stock multiple times within a day.
Sell – You can only sell the same stock two (2) times in a day. This will be strictly observed in order to avoid abuse. This includes selling in TRANCHES. Example: If you bought 1000 shares of $SMPH at 29 then sold 300 shares at 29.10, then you have only one (1) sell transaction left for $SMPH within the day.
7. Holding period for all stocks
We will be applying the twenty (20) minute time lock for taking profits to ALL STOCKS to avoid widespread and rinse-repeat trades. There are instances where specific names are simply bought due to the 2-2.5% widespread sold after 5 minutes once the stock has been ticked up.
There will be no timelock or restrictions when selling at a loss.
8. Revision of Tradable Stocks. Investagrams has the right to remove any stock from the list should it suddenly become too illiquid, abusable and/or delisted. Furthermore, Investagrams may also add new stocks on the tradable list as new stocks become more active and tradable in the market. All changes will be announced before implementation.
In such cases that a stock is to be removed, we will follow this process:
Investagrams shall notify all the participants via the Investagrams Platform before the market opens.
If you still have the stock in your portfolio, you can sell it at any point in time at your discretion.
9. Initial Public Offering (IPO). All upcoming IPOs that will happen while the Investa Pro League is on-going will be added on its SECOND (2nd) trading day.
10. For stocks that will be detected by our WIDE-SPREAD DETECTION SYSTEM (WSDS). The Wide-Spread Detection System’s main condition is that the first (1st) best bid and ask should never be more than 2% at any moment during open market session.
Fig 1. Real-time Market Depth / Orderbook showing the first (1st) best bid-ask data.
Example: $ATN (Refer to Fig. 1)
Given:
1st best bid = 1.11
1st best ask = 1.14
Formula:
X = (1st best ask – 1st best bid) / 1st best bid
Condition:
If X is greater than 2% then WSDS detects that the stock is wide-spread and can be abused.
Solution:
X = (1.14 – 1.11) / 1.11 = 0.02700 x 100% = 2.70%
Verdict:
Since X is greater than 2% then the stock is wide-spread as computed by the system.
The participant will be given a prompt that the detected stock is not tradable upon executing a buy or sell transaction.
The stock will again be tradable once the system detects that the spread of the 1st best bids/asks are below 2%.
11. On Trading Abuses.
Day trading opportunities on natural market moves are normal, but please take note that Investagrams will be on full-guard against participants that abuse illiquid opportunities. We want our winners to show real trading skills that are applicable in the PSE. Abuse of intraday spread trades will NOT BE TOLERATED. These rules are set to protect against the usual ‘rinse-and-repeat’ abuses that are mostly used in virtual trading competitions like this.
Any player that has more than 10% of their profits from rinse-and-repeat wide spread, illiquid and other abusive trades will be penalized or DISQUALIFIED depending on the severity of their offenses. We will be able to validate this through our data and algorithms that verify the historical transactions of each participant.
Any form of hacks, cheats, and abuses shall not be tolerated and will have corresponding repercussions. Suspicious behavior that may not be specified in the rules may also be flagged as ‘abusive’ trading behavior. Warning shall be sent after Investagrams has reviewed and confirmed that the actions are against the integrity of the competition. All trade records shall be verified and those who fail to follow the rules will be disqualified.
Participants will only be given ONE (1) warning, any participant who has constantly repeated any abusive trading behaviors (whether illiquid stocks, system abuses, loophole abuses) will instantly be DISQUALIFIED. Investagrams has the right to review any suspicious activity, and if the behavior is deemed inconsistent with real life trading then the said player shall be disqualified.
Questionable Transactions. Questionable transactions will be cross-checked through the buy and sell transaction time and the traded stock. Stocks that have more than 2% consistent gaps in the one (1) minute timeframe within the transaction period shall be deemed invalid and Investagrams has the right to deduct the profits from the said transactions. It is normal to trade natural intraday moves and gaps can really happen, but if a participant is constantly trading stocks that have gaps within one (1) minute timeframe and their profits from these kinds of scenarios make up more than 10% of their total profits, then he/she will be automatically disqualified.
Fig 2. Example 1 for one (1) minute time frame gaps with buy (green arrow) and sell (red arrow) transactions
Fig 3. Example 2 for one (1) min. time frame abusable 2% gaps
Fig 4. Example 3 for one (1) min. time frame abusable 2% gaps
Investagrams will warn the player that is proven to be constantly transacting with illiquid stocks with 2% one (1) minute gaps. Basically, any stock that has 2% spreads and do not really have a trend is included in this definition. After the first warning, any player that is proven to repeat this kind of behavior shall be disqualified.
12. Trading Halt. Stocks that are on a trading halt will not be tradable during the halt and will be tradable again during the announced lifting time.
13. Trading Hours: Weekdays from 9:30AM – 1:00PM (This is the current PH trading hours and will be changed once the enhance community quarantine is lifted. Meaning, you can’t trade during off-hours and on weekends.)
14. Participant rankings are constantly updated every 10-minutes and automatically ranked by Investagrams system according to net profit gain/loss.
15. At the end of the competition, the participants with the highest net profits will win. The top 1 to 3 participants shall be announced the official winners.
16. Modification and adding of rules. Investagrams has the right to modify the rules of the competition and add protective measures against any future abuses that may arise to ensure the integrity of the Investa Pro League. Announcements shall be made if there are any changes. Rest assured, we prioritize keeping the competition as FAIR as possible to all participants.
17. Ignorance of the rules is no excuse. All participants are expected to have read and understood the rules and mechanics of Investa Pro League. These are published for the participants’ information and protection. Ignorance of these rules and mechanics is not an acceptable excuse for violation.
18. Joining the Investa Pro League means that you agree with all the clauses mentioned above.
19. If you are part of the Top 3 winners, the FINAL DEADLINE to claim your cash prize is on AUGUST 31, 2020. The cash prize will not be given anymore past this date.
