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Featured Trader of the Week: Blitzkrieg

Amidst the rise of the local index, more names have emerged as potential market leaders. It is expected that more would flourish once the 6500 levels breach. With that being said, several names have shown signs of strength before the imminent breakout of the said levels.

Blitzkrieg (@blitzkrieg08) successfully spotted one of those stocks — Shakey’s Pizza Asia Ventures, Inc., or $PIZZA. This trader is an active member of the Investagrams community who endlessly provides his analysis of local stocks with the use of Technical Analysis.

The said name formed a long consolidation phase that started back in April 2020. As seen in the chart, the said phase was accompanied by dried up volume. Once the breakout occurred, it was supported with such volume activity that was last exhibited before the consolidation period in April 2020. The said up move was also in confluence with the breach of the 200-day moving average, that further validifies its current trend.

Besides the breakout of the pivot high at around the 7-peso area, a triangle breakout also happened in confluence with the 100-day moving average around the 6-peso area. The said scenarios could have been a flawless tranching setup.

It is a low-risk, high-reward trade, as the stop loss levels for the said breakout point of the triangle pattern is around 5.74 (-4%), and the take profit areas could be the structural resistance at 7 to 8 peso area (17% to 30%). Moreover, the stop-loss levels for the said breakout of the pivot high at the 7-peso levels could be around 6.65 (-5%), and the take profit levels of such would be 8 to 9-peso area (15% to 29%). 

$PIZZA must hold its ground around the 7-peso levels to further solidify its stance. The said stock should form a consolidation phase to provide some sort of leverage in its state before it reaches its structural and psychological resistance levels. Indeed, the rise of the $PSEi boosted this stock’s plight. 

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It is a non-negotiable for traders to accept the fact that every moment in the market is unique, therefore it is imperative to manage one’s expectation in a certain trade. Hence, exempting proper risk management to mitigate potential hazards is a deadly sin for traders and investors.

Congratulations to those who were able to maximize $PIZZA’s monstrous move. Lastly, kudos again to Blitzkrieg (@blitzkrieg08) for sharing his trade analysis. Your FREE 1-Month InvestaPRO is on its way!

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This Should Be Your First Habit Towards Financial Freedom

It’s very common to hear that the first step to financial freedom is saving. Easy enough to say, many are still having difficulty into walking into the path of financial journey.

“Mag-ipon ka lang, tapos invest!”

It’s not the same ride for everyone of us. We all have different privileges in life. We all have different risks. Fundamentally, everyone needs to know that we need to minimize expenses, and maximize savings. Is that possible? Yes, it is!

What’s your current state right now? Tipid-tipid din kapatid. That’s right! However, in reality, these things are difficult to handle; expenses here, liabilities there, payments are everywhere.

Look into the world with the lens of saving and investing. Without any savings or extra money, investing will be difficult. The purpose of saving is to be financially free, and to live tomorrow without doubts in expenses or even emergencies.

Take it or leave it, it’s easier to spend than to save. Think of your future, or even the people around you. Sometimes, life would only give you enough money to survive; it’s difficult to even support those who are in need or even get what you need. Improve on that and get to your starting line, be a game changer!

Saving is not all about getting a portion of your money for your emergency funds or even getting what is left. It’s also about spending wisely.

If you are having difficulties in saving, you might want to try this as well. There are various applications for budgeting that are currently emerging. What is good about the applications are being free and convenient. You might be asking what change could it bring for you to try the applications such as GCash, Shoppee, Lazada, or PayMaya, if the only thing it brings is a change of payment or transactions.

These applications are not just for your convenience in shopping. It offers so much more than that! Try and download these applications in your gadget, and try to scroll on it. These apps allow the user to use discounts, rebates, promos, and even free shipping. 

Interesting, right? Hearing these things would not only make your shopping fun, it could also help you a lot in your finances. You can either avail the promos, use free delivery coupons, or even your vouchers. Besides buying on sales and bundles, these things would help you save up. Especially that now is the time to use online platforms for your necessities.

Now, this is only one of the many things you can do to save ad spend wisely. You could also try exploring on more ways how to spend wisely such as using online banks for your payments or even choosing to cook at home than call on Jollibee delivery.

As long as you have the heart to manage your finances, continue to have that discipline in managing your finances. Remember, your future is also your responsibility; the first step to create a better future for you and your family is to be well-informed and guided with how you follow your finances. 


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Featured Trader of the Week: Kaliwetengtrader

The $PSEi rose drastically until the 6500 levels were hit. This has served to be the structural resistance levels of the said local barometer. Although given the said situation, several market leaders have emerged given that a healthy pullback exhibited itself per the price action of the said index.

Kaliwetengtrader (@thelefthandedtrader) successfully spotted one of those potential leaders — Philippine National Bank, or $PNB. This trader is an active member of the Investagrams community who endlessly provides his thorough examination of local names with the use of Technical Analysis.

As seen in the price action of the said name, after creating a big move last September 10, 2020, the stock created a consolidation pattern. Despite its volatility based on its DNA, specifically, the candlestick behavior with regards to its wicks, the breakout of the said stock was supported with enormous volume.

Kaliwetengtrader (@thelefthandedtrader) also mentioned the technique of associating a name’s breakout to that of a confluence in a breach of the RSI (14) 70 levels. When a stock manages to breakout of the pivot high of an underlying base accompanied by the said RSI parameter, it further solidifies the said move. 

The breakout is also in confluence with the breach of the MA200, which further supports its case for ascendancy. It is a must for the stock to hold at least the 25-peso area as it is a psychological and structural support level of the said name. Moreover, the stock should consolidate to amplify its buildup. 

It is stated in books that the RSI (14) 70 levels serve as the overbought area, deeming that the stock should not be purchased if the said parameter is reached. Although we must take note that the RSI indicator works best for consolidating or sideways price movement. Once it breaches the RSI (14) 70 levels in a trending price action manner, then it is safe to assume that the stock has entered a parabolic state. 

A breakout of the 25-peso pivot area was an ideal buy point as it was the confirmation of the breakout in confluence with the RSI (14) 70 and the MA200 breach. It is a low-risk, high-reward trade, as the stop loss levels for the said breakout point is below 24-peso area (-4%), and the take profit areas could be the structural resistance at 30 to 31-peso area (19% to 24%). 

As stated by Kaliwetengtrader (@thelefthandedtrader), it is imperative for a market participant to always plan their trades. Risks in the financial markets are inevitable, therefore one must discern their execution if the stock emerges or fails. 

Congratulations to those who were able to maximize $PNB’s initial breakout. Lastly, kudos again to Kaliwetengtrader (@thelefthandedtrader) for sharing his trade analysis. Your FREE 1-Month InvestaPRO is on its way!


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Overtrading: The Reality of Opportunity Cost

The main goal of trading is to achieve financial freedom. However, profiting from trading does not necessarily equate to financial freedom. There are significant metrics that should be taken into account in order to determine whether your trading system is actually helping you get closer and closer to that dream of financial freedom. This article provides insight on what to look out for when measuring your performance. 

Returns

An easy way to visualize your actual returns is to divide your total profits over the total hours(days) you have spent on trading. Are you making more money than you do on your regular job/business or are you earning way below minimum wage?

Of course, we should also take into account that trading is a lifelong journey and past performance is not an indicator of future results. However, figuring out how much money you make per hour on trading will help you determine whether or not your system is profitable. You do not necessarily have to quit trading but maybe you have to reevaluate your system. 

The key takeaway is to determine whether or not active trading is truly for you. Perhaps it would be more profitable to just passively invest and work on a different project (e.g. an online business). This is called opportunity cost.

In this scenario, the computation for opportunity cost goes as follows: profits that you could have made from doing something else (e.g. online business) minus the profits that you actually make from trading.. Ultimately, the decision is up to you but this is an important metric to determine whether or not trading is actually making you money.

Composition of your Day

How much time do you spend trading every day? Picture this, if you are trading for 4 hours everyday and you sleep for 8 hours everyday, you are effectively spending a quarter of your time awake on trading. It is easy to get caught up in stocks during market hours but putting things into proportion really puts things into perspective.

Do your returns match the proportion that trading takes up in your day? If it doesn’t, then you can do two things: spend less time trading or get greater returns. The former action is passive while the latter requires more dedication. This choice is dependent on how much time and effort you are willing to put into trading.

Efficiency

Assuming that you spend 4 hours every day trading, do you really need the whole four hours? In most cases, it is worth exploring trading tools such as screeners and price alerts. This will reduce the time that you spend actually trading without having to sacrifice potential returns. Remember, sticking to your trading plan is key to success. If you have a trading plan, there is no real need to monitor the markets yourself!

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Conclusion

Ultimately, we should accept the fact that the key to financial success is to capitalize on our individual strengths. Some people are simply good at trading while others might be even better at something else.

With this said, trading can be for everyone but we should always take into consideration the amount of time and effort that we are willing to put into it. It is important to devote our time to things that we are actually good at in order to increase our impact not just to ourselves but our impact to the world as well.

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Featured Trader of the Week: Golden BULL (@johngranda)

As the local index broke out of the 6000 levels in confluence with the 100-day moving average, several names have emerged, and one of which is a blue-chip company. Golden Bull (@johngranda) successfully spotted one of those potential leaders — Jollibee Foods Corp, or $JFC. This trader is an active member of the Investagrams community who endlessly provides his analysis and insights focusing on the local market.

As seen in the pattern of the said stock, it exhibits a VCP pattern. Mark Minervini coined the said pattern in his book “Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard.” This means that the said pattern displays contraction in its volatility from its previous data to the following or present data. Moreover, it consolidated for six months, which solidifies that its breakout of the underlying base may be robust. Indeed, the bigger the base, the higher in space.

Example of a VCP Pattern

Moreover, Golden Bull (@johngranda) also mentioned the importance of also looking into moving averages as it is a form of support and resistance levels. In the book of Jason Cam named “The Trading Code,” the author explained that moving averages could be used as dynamic support and resistance. It is dynamic because merely moving averages are moving each day due to its statistical formula. Static support and resistance levels, on the other hand, are only not moving and are horizontal, just like the blue rectangle box that is representing the resistance of the underlying base in the figure above.

It is safe to say that $JFC has broken out of the pivot high of the underlying base in confluence with the 200-day moving average. Breaching the 200-day moving average is crucial as it is in a long-term horizon, which ultimately makes it more significant than that of the 20-day, 50- day, and 100-day moving averages.  

A breakout of the 150-peso pivot area was an ideal buy point as it was the confirmation of the ascending triangle breakout accompanied by massive volume. It is a low-risk, high-reward trade, as the stop loss levels for the said breakout point is around 144 (-5%), and the take profit areas could be the structural resistance at 180 (19%). As of this writing, the stock ended the trading session strong. Let us see if another constructive base will be formed to place our ideal 2nd tranche.

The said stock needs to break and sustain the 180-peso levels to assert its dominance further. Although we can also expect the displayed name to pullback on the old resistance turned to new support in confluence with the 200-day moving average. At the very least, the 150-peso levels should hold. It is also expected that since the $PSEi is increasing, $JFC should, and it is a bluechip stock.

Congratulations to those who were able to maximize the momentum of $JFC. Lastly, kudos again to Golden Bull (@johngranda) for sharing his execution. Your FREE 1-Month InvestaPRO access is on its way!


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The Art of Position Sizing and Tranching

Along with a multitude of factors to consider before properly trading the markets, correct position sizing and tranching parameters are imperative. These two aspects are within the spectrum of the Risk Management System where it is factors that a market participant can control.

It is a fact that there are matters that we cannot control in the financial markets, such as the price movement, black swan events, errors in the trader’s end (e.g. internet connection), among others. Instead, we can direct our focus to aspects that we can control, such as our management with risk, our trade plan, our trading psychology, among others.

The importance of proper position sizing and tranching is to mitigate our risk of depleting our portfolio drastically. Going all-in on one trade is as risky as jumping on a body of water without assuring whether it contains toxic chemicals, a shark, or whatnot.

A market participant must test the waters first, then scale or pyramid their position on the way up to increase their value-wise profits. This is the polar opposite to that of averaging down, where an individual would increase their position as the stock decreases. The problem with this is that there is an inevitable risk that the said name would go lower, which would decrease their value-wise losses drastically. As Jesse Livermore exclaims, thou shall not average down. 

To deploy a proper position size on an individual’s trades, the trader must assess their desired number of stock positions. Initially, holding four to six names is ideal. However, there is a multitude of traders who owns ten stocks at a time. Mark Minervini would hold 20-25 positions at a time. As they say, to each their own. 

The advantage of having multiple positions is that there is a high chance that you could possess a potential leader given that the scope is larger than that of a trader who wishes to acquire or maintain, for example, five positions. The problem with this approach is that you will be spread too thin. 

You could apply any approach with your trades if, in the end, your winning stocks are substantially scaled on the way up. This is to fully take advantage of the direction of the trend. For example, although Mark Minervini holds that many positions, he eventually ends up with at least 10 positions as time progresses. Wherein the 20-25 positions will be cut in 10 based on the individual performances of a stock. Essentially, the laggards in his portfolio are thrown away. Mark’s leading stocks are incrementally scaled on the upside. Pluck the weeds and water the flowers, as they say.

It is best to test the waters before purchasing a said stock. If you want to hold five stock positions at a time, the trader can deploy 10% of his portfolio to a name with 1VAR. As the trade goes in your favor, the trader can add another tranche or a new trade incrementally for the said stock, so on and so forth, until their position encompasses 20% of their portfolio. This will enable the trader to maximize the movement of the said stock, wherein their value-gains will incrementally increase. 

Source: warriortrading.com

It is only applicable to scale your positions on the upside if an opportunity represents itself. Therefore, you must not force the tranche trade if there is no deemed opportunity at all. Every trade should have a basis. Always remember that patience is the key to navigate the trading landscape. 

Again, you can do any approach if you apply proper risk management in all your trades. Always make sure to properly allocate our positions in a trade to maximize the opportunity at hand. Our goal as traders is to survive and prolong our journey as a market participant. Focusing on the bigger picture is of the essence to open one’s mind in this endeavor. The goal of a trader should be lifelong sustenance of the profits that they earn.  


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What Type Of Trader Are You?

As there are different types of people that you will meet in your journey in life, the same principle applies at the beginning of your respective phase towards success in trading the markets. An aspiring market participant will ultimately submit themselves with a conscious choice of selecting what type of trader should they be.

These kinds of traders are separated into four categories, namely Day Traders, Momentum Traders, Swing Traders, and Position Traders. Each category is distinctive to that of its counterparties in terms of its timeframe and its style of approach towards a certain name.

Source: OneMinuteEconomics.com

Day Traders

These are are market participants who get in and out of a stock or any asset class within a few minutes to a few hours. These types of traders do not hold any position overnight wherein they would sell all their existing positions before the market closes. Most day traders use leverage to further amplify their percentage gains and losses from incremental price movements. 

Momentum Traders

These people focus on bigger moves such as a breakout or a breakdown for long and short trades respectively. Ideally, these types of traders latch on to price movement that is supported with massive volume until the trend bends. The timeframe for such traders may last for a few hours to several days. 

Swing Traders

These traders are similar to Momentum Traders. This type also latches on to the prevailing trend until it bends. The timeframe for such traders typically lasts from a few days to numerous weeks. Both Momentum and Swing Traders focus on daily moves rather than intraday fluctuations, which is most applicable for traders who are also working a day job. 

Position Traders

Lastly, Position traders focus more on the bigger picture moves in a stock or any asset class. This type of trading is the exact opposite of Day Trading. Position Traders typically anticipate explosive moves that they deem to last in the longer term. Also, they are not concerned with daily fluctuations as they naturally hold their positions within a few weeks to numerous months. 

It is possible to mix these types depending on your personality and your goal towards the financial markets. For example, an individual could both be a mix of Swing and Position trading as they wish. To further aid an aspiring market participant on what type of trader do they belong, they may ask these questions amongst themselves.

What is my time horizon? Do I want to hold names in the short-term, medium-term, or long-term?

How much time could I spend in trading the markets? Do I have a day job? Can I trade the markets while I am working or only whenever I am free?

Do I want to see results quickly? Is it okay for me to execute trades every time or sometimes? 

Whichever type of trader that an individual may decide to be, it all comes down to their commitment to this craft. This endeavor requires patience, discipline, and hard work. An aspiring market participant should dedicate their deliberate practice or one’s 10,000+ hours to succeed in the markets. 


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